Michigan has never lost a game to a MAC team.  The Wolverines have a perfect 23-0 record against MAC opponents headed into this weekend’s matchup in the Big House against Miami of Ohio.  Will this be the game where Michigan turns it around and begins to find some traction after last week’s abysmal loss to Utah?  Or will this be the App State of 2008, sparking a Notre Dame-esque fall from grace?  Here’s what to expect:

The RedHawks (that’s not a typo; the “H” really is capitalized) are a pretty good squad.  They went 5-2 last year, and are the defending MAC West Division champs.  Miami lost its season opener to Vanderbilt last week, 34-13.

On offense, Miami is decent.  Like Michigan, they have two quarterbacks, a starry-eyed freshman, Clay Belton, and a more experienced junior, Daniel Raudabaugh.  Miami should be considered a “second year” offense; a majority of its offensive players are returning players, but saw their first action just last year.  Miami heavily favors its passing game, although starter Raudabaugh’s completion rate is less than 50%.  Miami is a “big play” team; they seek out the trick plays and sneak plays that will net instant touchdowns.

On defense, the RedHawks are very solid.  For a MAC team, this is as good as it gets.  Nine of Miami’s defensive players are seniors with multi-year experience; three of these guys were Butkus Award considerations.  In fact, Miami’s defense essentially carried last year’s freshman offense to the MAC championship game.

On offense, Michigan will continue to struggle, especially in the passing game.  Rodriguez will start Steven Threet, who significantly outperformed rival Nick Sheridan on Saturday.  (Both were miserable, but Threet was far less miserable.)  Expect Threet to favor Greg Mathews, who should start to find his stride this weekend as Michigan’s premier wide receiver.

The Wolverines will focus on the running game, however, with Brandon Minor making his fully healthy return this weekend.  (Minor was a key missing ingredient against Utah.  He sat out most of the game, but when he played, he averaged 5.4 yards per carry.)  Minor could easily have a 100-yard game against Miami.  If the Wolverines establish the running game early with Minor, this thing is in the bag.

On defense, Michigan needs to step it up.  If the second half defensive spark we saw against Utah is any indicator of this weekend’s game against Miami, then the Wolverines should be in good shape.  Expect Michigan’s experienced defensive line to bring it, hard, against Miami.  The risk here is Michigan’s secondary, which against Utah was utterly pathetic.  If Michigan can establish the rush against the RedHawks, they’ll be fine.  If they get back on their heels against Miami’s pass-happy offense, we could be in for a very long afternoon.  And in any event, look for a handful of trick plays by the “big play” Miami team to avoid potential embarrasment on the road against a Big Ten foe.

They key is Minor.  If Minor stays healthy, Michigan should see a decisive win.  If Minor is unhealthy, this game is essentially a coin toss, and we could be looking at the first ever MAC upset in the Big House.

The Official Prediction…

Michigan 31, Miami 17

On the XBox…

The defending five-time national champ Wolverines routed the RedHawks on my Xbox, 112-0, extending their winning streak to 62 consecutive games.  Steven Threet threw an astonishing nine touchdown passes to Greg Matthews, who had 512 yards receiving.  Brandon Minor added five touchdowns and a total of 440 rushing yards.

A New Hope…

Take heart, Michigan fans.  The maize and blue have finally received a commitment from five-star high school recruit Tate Forcier, an elite dual-threat quarterback from San Diego.  The running quarterback Forcier is an ideal recruit for RichRod’s new spread system, and could be the face of Michigan football as early as next fall.  If only we can hang on for just one season…